this will probably only work for me, but I didn't think of all of these techniques on my own. I learned them from others sharing what they found works for best for them too.
Researchas a Stochastic Decision Process describes a technique to optimize prioritization by selecting the sub tasks that provide you the most information for the parent task. Using Expected Time Saved and Failure Rate we can further optimize our goal prioritization.
p is the probability of the task succeeding and
T is the estimated time to complete the task
Task failure tends to be more informative feedback than task success, so tasks with higher Failure Rate should be prioritized higher. The faster you can fail, the faster you can plan and implement successful solutions
These numbers are all completely made up and in practice you won't be able to estimate things so well. I subjectively distinguish between different "buckets" of success probability, such as:
allows you find metrics that can give you insight into how long it takes for you to accomplish certain tasks.
K is the total amount of goals achieved for a given tag name
the Time Estimate Mean Error Rate is a metric defined as the average rate of error in estimation across either a set of goals or a set of goal tags
Don't waste time or cognitive energy deciding what you are going to eat, wear, clean, shop for the day.
I find a cleaning calendar is a great way to systematize keeping my apartment tidy without heavy cognitive load.
Tide pods present an interesting opportunity for me to be able to systematize my laundry process. Since I am using Systems To Make Decisions For Me, I know that I will be doing laundry weekly on Fridays. I don't have any reliable metrics on how many loads that I do, especially since I haven't made the adjustment yet, but I can make an estimate that I will do 3-5 loads of laundry on each Friday. An acceptable error budget that I can establish for this system is one trip to Walgreens before I get a shipment of new tide pods. My trip to Walgreens adds 31 pods to my tide pod stock and an order from amazon adds 90 tide pods to my stock. One trip to Walgreens can also carry over to multiple system errors, because the Tide Pods from my trip to Walgreens does not diminish after I receive a shipment from amazon. This property adds some unexpected resilience to the system as a whole.
Calculating the shipment interval for my Tide Pods will be done by calculating the amount of weeks it should take for me use all of my tide pods.
tide_pod_quantitiy = 90 weekly_usage = 4 # using 4 pods a week as a middle ground estimate weeks_of_use = tide_pod_quantitiy / weekly_usage print(weeks_of_use)
The results show that it takes 22.5 weeks to use all of my tide pods which amounts to 5.625 months. The 6 month renewal option seems like the optimal choice for my situation because it will satisfy my error and automate an item away from my grocery list without me piling up with an unnecessary amount of tide pods.